Canada Faces Unprecedented Electricity Demand Growth: Nuclear Energy Critical to Meeting 2050 Needs 

A new study commissioned by the Canadian Nuclear Association shows that Canada’s electricity system must undergo an historical and extensive build-out of clean power generation to meet projected future demand. 

By 2050, demand for electricity is projected to double or even triple compared to today, as the country works to decarbonize its economy, build new industries, accommodate a growing population, and meet the rising needs of digital technologies like artificial intelligence. 

The study projects that Canada could need 150 gigawatts of additional firm generation by mid-century, including 115 gigawatts of new non-emitting baseload and 35 gigawatts of flexible supply. To put this into perspective, the requirement for new baseload alone represents more than twice Canada’s existing combined nuclear and hydro baseload capacity. 

Multiple forces are driving this unprecedented growth. The shift to a net-zero economy through electrification of vehicles, heating, and industry is the single largest source of demand. At the same time, new industrial activity in areas such as critical minerals, battery manufacturing, and hydrogen production is expected to add between 11 and 16 gigawatts of demand. Population growth will add further pressure, with Statistics Canada projecting 52.5 million residents by 2050, nearly five percent higher than assumptions in previous energy studies. Meanwhile, the digital economy is also expected to make its mark, with electricity demand from artificial intelligence and data centres reaching three to five gigawatts by 2030 and as much as 10 gigawatts by 2050. 

Nuclear energy stands out in the report as uniquely well-suited to help meet this challenge. It provides around-the-clock, non-emitting baseload power, operates at capacity factors above 90 percent, and requires far less land than other clean technologies. The study outlines three illustrative deployment scenarios. In the Low Build Case, Canada would add about 17 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2050, reflecting projects already announced in Ontario, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and New Brunswick. The Medium Build Case assumes around 37 gigawatts, with new builds in additional provinces starting in the 2040s. The High Build Case envisions 51 gigawatts, requiring a sustained build rate of roughly four gigawatts per year by 2040. However, even under this most ambitious pathway, nuclear would provide less than half of the identified need for new baseload, underscoring the scale of the challenge ahead and the importance of a balanced mix of technologies. 

The economic case for nuclear is compelling. Over a 40-to-60-year lifespan, its capital costs are estimated to be less than half those of firmed renewables. For ratepayers, total system costs could be up to 60 percent lower with nuclear in the mix. For taxpayers, nuclear offers stronger returns on government investment, with payback on tax credits potentially reaching 95 percent within 20 years compared to about 50 percent for other technologies. This translates to a federal fiscal cost that is roughly 82 percent lower than alternatives. 

The timeline adds urgency. By 2035, Canada could need an additional 30 to 36 gigawatts of new capacity, under the report’s Reference Scenario, including about four gigawatts from already announced nuclear projects. Even if all existing fossil generation is kept online, the country still faces a shortfall of 26 to 32 gigawatts within the next decade, followed by steady baseload growth of roughly six gigawatts per year. With major energy projects requiring long lead times, immediate action is needed to begin planning, siting, and building new non-emitting capacity. 

The report makes clear that while nuclear is critical, no single technology can meet the challenge alone. A reliable, affordable, and clean system will require nuclear alongside hydro, biomass, and renewables backed by firming. In the near term, natural gas will also continue to play a role, with a complete phaseout unlikely before 2050. Innovative approaches, such as co-locating nuclear and gas facilities, could help manage costs and risks during the transition. 

Canada has faced an expansion of this scale before. Between 1950 and 2000, the electricity system grew tenfold, proving the country’s capacity for bold, coordinated action. Meeting today’s challenge of doubling or tripling supply over the next 25 years is ambitious but achievable. Nuclear energy, with its unique combination of reliable baseload power, economic advantages, and clean operation, must be at the centre of this effort if Canada is to succeed.